Moldova

There have been two good articles on Moldova this week.  You can read them here and here. Since 2009 Moldova has had a pro-European government and has been making reforms to integrate with Europe.  Those plans have been put on hold due to political instability, a reoccurring problem for Moldova.  As the first article points out, Moldova is still stuck in the middle between the EU and Russia.  When Moldova will become more politically stable and when they will finally gravitate towards the EU or Russia is anyone's guess, but it would not surprise me if we had this same conversation in 10 years.

Kes on President Putin?

 

Väga hea artikkel President Putinist on kättesaadav Foreign Policy'st.  Seal on väljatoonud 6 omanduses mis kirjeldavad Putinit: statist, history man, survivalist, outsider, free marketer, ja case officer. 

2013

The European Council on Foreign Relations recently came out with an article predicting the top 10 trends for Europe in 2013.  You can read their article here.  Below is a short summary of what they said. 

1. The single market unravels
2. "Small" States lead the EU's foreign policy
3. The end of technocracy
4. The British debate over Europe becomes less toxic
5. Syria as the playground for proxy conflicts
6. Political vs. Religious Islam
7. Putin's increasingly ungovernable Russia
8. Security in the Maghreb becomes a real issue
9. China 3.0 meets Chinese leadership 1.5
10. Will post-American Europe fail to grow up or discover strategy?

Europe's time to shine

The recent French intervention in Mali has brought up the topic of US-European relations again.  When will the US team with Europe to intervene and when will Europe be left to itself?  Here is an interesting article addressing these questions.  Obama's foreign policy strategy can be summed up like this: if others can do the job then we won't.  It will be interesting to see how Europe adapts to the new US strategy. The Economist has another interesting article about France's president and the Mali intervention, things could be looking up for President Hollande Read and judge for yourselves.

Team Obama

 

Team Obama 2.0 is starting to take shape, things look good so far.  Susan Rice has withdrawn her candidacy for secretary of state to replace Hillary Clinton.  This that leaves Senator John Kerry as the top man for the job.  Kerry brings a wealth of experience to the job and is seen as being a loyal soldier for Obama.  Rumor has it that former Republican Senator Chuck Hagel will be nominated for Secretary of Defense for the outgoing Leon Panetta.  If true, and if they pass the confirmation process, they would bring a experience and more importantly good ideas to Obama's foreign policy team.  For an overview on what their impact will be you can read this article from the Washington Post.  Realists and those weary of the Neocon foreign policy of the Bush era are happy at the appointments.  Stephen Walt recently blogged giving the top five reasons why Chuck Hagel would make a good secretary of defense.  In the Washington Post article, Christopher Preble, the author of "the power problem" and a supporter of a more modest US foreign policy, said the following about Chuck Hagel "I expect that Hagel will generally advise against sending U.S. troops on quixotic nation-building missions". For those weary of long wars this can be taken by most as good news.

As the Washington Post article notes, there are plenty of issues for Obama to deal with in his second term: Iran's nuclear ambitions, rising China, the Syrian civil war, a shrinking defense budget, unrest in the Middle East, and the global financial crisis.  I think they will make a good impact on Cuban issues and on Israel-Palestine issues.  Both Kerry and Hagel favor more moderate positions on Cuba.  They also could convince Obama to pressure Israel into meaningful compromise that could lead to progress in the peace talks.

While there are many obstacles ahead that could prevent Obama from a successful second term (not saying that the first was successful), the formation of Obama's second term foreign policy term is certainly a step in the right direction. 

Korras nagu Norras

Daniel Drezner writes an interesting blog entry on China-Norway relations.  Norway's choices for Nobel peace prizes have been interesting to say the least. Obama and the EU being the most interesting in recent years, it was Norway's 2010 Nobel peace prize choice that set China off.  Drezner doesn't agree with China's criticism of Norway and concludes that despite the nasty words from Beijing, kõik on korras nagu Norras.

Four more years

 

Obama won the election and that means he will be the President for four more years.  What does this mean for his foreign policy?  On the one hand this means stability in US policies towards Afghanistan, the Middle East and Russia.  On the other hand there will be major changes in Obama's foreign policy team and there are reports that now the election is over Obama is reconsidering some of his foreign policy strategies.  Over the next few months Obama will be focused on budget issues, the so called financial cliff, but early next year pay attention to foreign policy.  Issues like Iran, Afghanistan, Russia, and more will be making headlines.  For an article on the impact of secretary of state click here. For an update of the reset with Russia (by the way, I think Putin is very happy that Romney did not win) click here.