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Thursday, September 19, 2013

NATO's future and Estonia





Recently NATO Secretary General Rasmussen (who visited Tallinn University in 2011) mentioned Estonia in his speech on NATO's future.  You can read the speech here. I am a bit more skeptical of the benefit of NATO for Estonia than most, however Rasmussen said something that is noteworthy.  My main concern is that NATO is not capable of defending Estonia from its greatest security concerns.  These are new soft security problems like cyber and energy security as well as other problems that stem from problems in society.  For a longer discussion on this topic in Estonia please see the latest issue of Acta Politica Estica. 
Rasmussen mentions three goals of NATO going forward:
  1. maintain robust defense and deterrence
  2. reaffirm the bond between Europe and North America and rebalance our relationship.
  3. Bolster global perspective and remain ready to work with parters to protect values
Of these three the first one is of most importance to Estonia.  How can NATO provide a robust defense against a cohesive society, cyber and energy security?  Currently they can't, and this is a problem for Estonia.  On a positive note, Rasmussen mentions that in his opinion NATO's next step (one of them at least) should be to "consider how [NATO] could assist Allies who come under cyber attack".  As to date, NATO has been more concerned with securing NATO systems from cyber threats, along with establishing international norms.  While helpful, it is of limited value to Estonia.  If NATO carries through with Rasmussen's hope to provide real assistance for Estonia's cyber defenses, it could change the dynamics of NATO's future.  States will stand only so long with NATO if their own interests are not being met.

Secretary Rasmussen, well done on a nice speech and for seeing the problems and solutions for NATO.  As always, it is easy to say but hard to do.  We'll be following the developments in NATO from Estonia carefully, and wishing you luck. Both of our futures depend on it.